Breaking Transfers

A request!

Partner and I have been discussing a more liberal attitude to transfer breaks after a 2NT opening. I've suggested breaking should be mandatory with any 4-card holding, regardless of the rest of opener's hand, on the grounds that 10 tricks must stand a chance with a 6-4 fit even if responder has a Yarborough. Obviously it's not so good if it's a 5-4 fit, but most of the time responder will have a few scattered points.

If you have an idle moment, please can you simulate expected number of tricks holding 0,1,2,3... etc. HCP opposite a balanced 20-22 HCP (a) when the fit is 5-4 (b) when the fit is 6-4?

This one shouldn't be too tricky. Let's give ourselves a 20-22 2NT opener with four hearts and give partner a hand with five or more hearts. He transfers and you are wondering whether you should super-accept or if the 3 level is the right place to play.

Over 10,000 deals, we made the following numbers of tricks:

6            5
7           39
8          283
9          946
10        2156
11        3148
12        2439
13         984

In other words, we made game 87%, made precisely 3H 9.5% and couldn't make 3H 3.3% of the time. On the face of it, it looks pretty good for bashing game every time because the chances are very good that it'll make.

But this is playing partner for the full possible range of his bid. On a large proportion of these deals, he won't be passing the transfer out and game won't be missed anyway. So let's look at those deals where partner has not very many points:

Pts       4H    3H    tot    
0         55    57    188
1        160   145    388
2        275   185    520
3        602   188    843
4        926   185   1143
5       1095   102   1209

Here it tells us that if partner has a Yarborough you'll make game on 55/188 occasions (29%), you'll make your partscore on 57/188 occasions (30%) and go off in 3H the rest of the time (40%). And things, unsurprisingly, get better as partner gets more points.

If you take the full 0-3 range, where partner would probably pass your transfer, you're making game 56% of the time.

Now, I haven't taken into account the possibility of being doubled. It might make a difference occasionally, especially if oppo become aware that you're super accepting on anything, but shouldn't take us below the odds required for game at teams. At pairs, things might get a bit closer - especially when making +170 might still be a good board. You might want to hold off on the very worst hands here.

So I think there's some merit to super-accepting a lot in these positions, but don't go crazy. 56% is well in your favour, but is not a cast-iron certainty. You are allowed to use judgement too!