S: KJT2
H: K42
D: AKQ6
C: K7
S: Q95
H: AQ83
D: 73
C: AJ64
The auction would bore you but North showed spades and diamonds with invitational values and South saw there was no fit and that the partnership had fewer than the traditionally required 33 points and so stopped in game. As you can see, though, slam is very good. It requires hearts 3-3 or a club finesse or one of several possible squeezes. Why is it so good? Undoubtedly, that
10 is valuable, but even if you take it away, the slam is still a decent spot.So I endeavoured to find out. My plan was to delve into the details of what makes these hands worth 12 tricks and try to come up with a better evaluation method for 6NT contracts than pure high-card points. However, I didn't need to — points work fine. Over 2,000 tests where the partnership had 32 combined points, slam made a whopping 69% of the time! Since when did this change? We've always been told that you need 33 points to make 6NT and I've never heard anyone say anything to the contrary. Or is this common knowledge that all experts use but which has mysteriously remained a gap in my bridge learning? Post a comment calling me a naïve idiot if you like.
And don't give me any crap about double-dummy results being completely different from real life. I don't buy it. Yes, our solver will pick up any two-way guesses for a Queen or know which squeeze to play for, but in the real world the defence might underlead a Queen at trick one, obviating a guess, or they might have trouble knowing which four-card suit to discard from. And besides, I'm not saying that 69% of slams will make — only that 69% of slams are makeable and I for one would be very happy to bid them on this basis.
It doesn't stop there. With 31 points between the hands, over 2,000 deals, almost exactly 50% of them make 6NT. Who here is surprised by this? This means that you can bid slam more freely knowing that, at worst, it will be makeable 50% of the time.
Of course, if you're bidding these slams with lower point counts you're in more danger of having two cashing aces against you. If only there was some kind of convention which can be used to check for aces after a 1NT opening...
