74 
84 
72 
AKQJT63Partner is a passed hand, RHO is a passed hand. What odds do you give yourself of making 3NT? Over 10,000 deals, we made the following numbers of tricks:
Tricks Num
0 17
1 78
2 241
3 573
4 759
5 1071
6 1452
7 1925
8 2753
9 1098
10 33
11 0
12 0
13 0
You'll make your contract a massive 11% of the time. You'll go 5 off or worse almost 17% of the time. In real life you'll do better than this as oppo have a blind lead and if they get it wrong you can often rattle off 9 tricks, but even if we doubled our odds we're still well short of the kind of percentage we need.
If you happen to be playing a third seat 3NT the same as a first seat one then stop. Right now.
1 comment:
What is recommended for a 3rd seat 3NT? I guess we could increase the hand strength until we reach a certain threshold. But what would that threshold be? For instance, at the moment a 'Gambling 3NT' opening in 3rd will yield game 11.3% of the time. Let's say we change the criteria such that a 3rd seat 3NT opening promises a solid 7 card suit AND a king. If game now makes 20% of the time is that sufficient? What about an ace, maybe 30%? Etc etc.
Typically game on a finesse (50%) is acceptable at teams. That would be a good starting point. The alternative to opening 3NT would be 3C (or 4C with a bit more shape compared with the 2=2=2=7 example hand). 3NT is undeniably more preemptive than 3C so maybe our required success rate should be reduced a little to say 45% or even 40%?
Then there's the upper limit of a 3NT 3rd seat opening to think of. Could it be say a solid 7 (or 6) card minor in as much as a 19 count? And if we can open on 13-19 points with a solid minor, must parter always pass with a near bust in case we have the higher strength? So many questions and so much simulation required :o)
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