Non-Vulnerable versus Non-VulnerableNote the big difference when we're vulnerable and oppo aren't. It's now only a plus to double them in that narrow 12-14 point range — stronger hands do better to play in 3NT.
Cross-IMPs/board Makes% MP %
HCP Freq 3NT 3SX Pass 3SX 3NT 3NT 3SX Pass
0 1 -14.50 4.50 10.00 100 0 0 50 100
1 24 -13.02 3.48 9.54 83 0 2 56 92
2 183 -11.67 3.16 8.51 77 0 4 58 88
3 634 -10.21 2.38 7.83 74 0 8 56 86
4 1605 -8.74 1.61 7.14 74 2 13 53 84
5 2984 -7.82 1.27 6.55 72 4 17 52 81
6 5142 -6.47 0.92 5.56 67 8 23 52 76
7 8054 -5.39 0.70 4.69 63 11 27 52 71
8 11018 -4.50 0.66 3.84 57 15 31 53 66
9 14228 -3.49 0.51 2.99 53 21 35 54 61
10 16816 -2.69 0.42 2.27 50 25 39 54 57
11 19015 -1.90 0.61 1.29 43 31 43 56 51
12 19769 -1.38 0.78 0.60 39 36 45 58 46
13 19917 -0.63 0.82 -0.19 34 42 49 59 42
14 18692 -0.23 1.12 -0.89 30 47 51 62 37
15 16029 0.38 1.38 -1.76 25 53 54 64 32
16 13401 0.63 1.64 -2.27 22 57 55 66 29
17 10503 1.09 1.86 -2.94 18 62 57 67 25
18 7817 1.30 2.26 -3.56 15 66 58 70 22
19 5464 1.65 2.51 -4.17 12 71 60 72 18
20 3741 1.76 2.93 -4.69 9 75 61 74 16
21 2230 2.21 3.21 -5.42 6 81 62 76 12
22 1371 2.15 3.60 -5.74 5 82 61 79 10
23 778 2.31 4.06 -6.38 3 88 63 80 7
24 398 2.11 4.45 -6.56 3 89 62 82 6
25 186 2.31 4.63 -6.95 1 91 63 83 4
Non-Vulnerable versus Vulnerable
Cross-IMPs/board Makes% MP %
HCP Freq 3NT 3SX Pass 3SX 3NT 3NT 3SX Pass
0 1 -13.50 3.00 10.50 100 0 0 50 100
1 24 -11.52 1.31 10.21 83 0 2 56 92
2 183 -9.64 0.74 8.90 77 0 10 53 87
3 634 -8.22 0.03 8.19 74 0 15 51 84
4 1605 -6.81 -0.66 7.47 74 2 21 48 81
5 2984 -6.04 -0.80 6.85 72 4 24 48 78
6 5142 -4.91 -0.88 5.80 67 8 29 48 73
7 8054 -4.18 -0.74 4.92 63 11 32 50 68
8 11018 -3.61 -0.43 4.04 57 15 35 52 63
9 14228 -2.94 -0.24 3.18 53 21 38 54 58
10 16816 -2.41 -0.06 2.47 50 25 40 55 54
11 19015 -2.07 0.58 1.49 43 31 42 59 49
12 19769 -1.89 1.08 0.81 39 36 43 63 45
13 19917 -1.49 1.47 0.03 34 42 44 65 40
14 18692 -1.44 2.09 -0.65 30 47 45 69 37
15 16029 -1.24 2.73 -1.50 25 53 46 72 32
16 13401 -1.26 3.25 -1.99 22 57 46 75 29
17 10503 -1.08 3.73 -2.64 18 62 47 78 25
18 7817 -1.19 4.44 -3.25 15 66 47 81 22
19 5464 -1.09 4.92 -3.83 12 71 48 83 19
20 3741 -1.24 5.54 -4.31 9 75 47 86 17
21 2230 -1.10 6.11 -5.01 6 81 49 89 13
22 1371 -1.30 6.61 -5.30 5 82 49 90 11
23 778 -1.38 7.21 -5.83 3 88 48 93 9
24 398 -1.77 7.77 -5.99 3 89 46 94 9
25 186 -1.63 8.01 -6.38 1 91 49 95 6
Vulnerable versus Non-Vulnerable
Cross-IMPs/board Makes% MP %
HCP Freq 3NT 3SX Pass 3SX 3NT 3NT 3SX Pass
0 1 -16.50 5.50 11.00 100 0 0 50 100
1 24 -14.96 4.54 10.42 83 0 0 58 92
2 183 -13.80 4.37 9.43 77 0 1 61 88
3 634 -12.66 3.78 8.88 74 0 3 61 86
4 1605 -11.31 3.08 8.22 74 2 6 59 85
5 2984 -10.32 2.69 7.63 72 4 9 58 82
6 5142 -8.80 2.23 6.57 67 8 15 58 78
7 8054 -7.52 1.89 5.62 63 11 19 58 73
8 11018 -6.33 1.68 4.65 57 15 24 58 68
9 14228 -5.02 1.35 3.67 53 21 29 57 63
10 16816 -3.92 1.08 2.83 50 25 34 57 59
11 19015 -2.66 1.00 1.66 43 31 40 58 53
12 19769 -1.81 0.98 0.83 39 36 44 58 48
13 19917 -0.68 0.81 -0.13 34 42 48 58 43
14 18692 0.08 0.90 -0.98 30 47 52 59 39
15 16029 1.15 0.90 -2.05 25 53 57 59 34
16 13401 1.66 1.02 -2.68 22 57 59 60 30
17 10503 2.44 1.05 -3.49 18 62 63 61 26
18 7817 3.01 1.24 -4.25 15 66 66 62 23
19 5464 3.66 1.33 -4.99 12 71 69 62 19
20 3741 4.01 1.61 -5.62 9 75 70 63 16
21 2230 4.88 1.66 -6.54 6 81 75 63 12
22 1371 4.95 1.96 -6.91 5 82 75 65 10
23 778 5.40 2.28 -7.68 3 88 77 65 7
24 398 5.32 2.60 -7.92 3 89 78 65 7
25 186 5.70 2.69 -8.39 1 91 79 67 4
Vulnerable versus Vulnerable
Cross-IMPs/board Makes% MP %
HCP Freq 3NT 3SX Pass 3SX 3NT 3NT 3SX Pass
0 1 -15.00 3.50 11.50 100 0 0 50 100
1 24 -13.92 2.88 11.04 83 0 0 58 92
2 183 -12.47 2.52 9.96 77 0 2 60 88
3 634 -11.31 1.96 9.35 74 0 5 59 86
4 1605 -9.89 1.20 8.69 74 2 10 56 85
5 2984 -9.00 0.96 8.04 72 4 13 55 82
6 5142 -7.60 0.68 6.92 67 8 19 54 77
7 8054 -6.57 0.63 5.93 63 11 23 55 72
8 11018 -5.62 0.72 4.90 57 15 27 56 67
9 14228 -4.58 0.69 3.89 53 21 31 56 63
10 16816 -3.69 0.66 3.03 50 25 35 56 58
11 19015 -2.82 1.00 1.82 43 31 39 58 52
12 19769 -2.27 1.30 0.97 39 36 42 60 48
13 19917 -1.43 1.44 -0.01 34 42 46 61 43
14 18692 -1.00 1.86 -0.87 30 47 48 64 39
15 16029 -0.30 2.24 -1.94 25 53 51 66 33
16 13401 -0.03 2.61 -2.58 22 57 53 67 30
17 10503 0.50 2.89 -3.39 18 62 55 69 26
18 7817 0.74 3.43 -4.17 15 66 56 72 22
19 5464 1.15 3.75 -4.90 12 71 58 73 19
20 3741 1.25 4.26 -5.51 9 75 59 75 16
21 2230 1.80 4.63 -6.43 6 81 61 77 12
22 1371 1.68 5.10 -6.77 5 82 60 80 10
23 778 1.89 5.59 -7.47 3 88 62 81 7
24 398 1.58 6.11 -7.69 3 89 60 83 7
25 186 1.88 6.27 -8.15 1 91 62 84 4
Thursday, 18 October 2007
Defence to 3♠, part II
There was a small bug in the program I used in the last post. Some people might have noticed that the cross-IMPs didn't quite add up. It was to do with rounding errors but it's fixed now and I ran the whole test again. I also decided that I'd quite like to measure match point results after all, so those are included. Finally, we now have statistics for all four vulnerabilities and you'll see that it makes a substantial difference. I've also quoted some stats as percentages rather than raw numbers and it makes it much easier to read.
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3 comments:
I don't know if you are going to do any more with this (I hope so!) but here's a suggestion. If you do further analysis then you should look at:
1) 3NT=natural, X=takeout
2) 3NT=takeout, X=penalties/strong bal
3) Use #2, except #1 where we are vulnerable vs not.
Oh, and isn't 3NT as takeout and X as pens just Fishbein? :o)
Wouldn't Fishbein use 4C as takeout here? Those players have 3NT as natural and double as penalties, which I think my analysis is showing is a complete waste of a bid. For the most part, a lot of hands with which you would want to overcall 3NT with, you would actually score substantially better if you made a penalty double. But I don't think this is that surprising — the question I now need to ask is how much it would kill the rest of the system if we played it this way.
The other interesting part to come from these endless tables is just how weak you can profitably make penalty doubles here. How many Fishbein players would double for penalties on a weak NT hand?
So... isn't the next step to run the tournament again allowing south to hold either the hand type you have defined already or the classic takeout double (opening hand, no more than 2 spades at least 3 cards in each of the other suits)
That begin to let you account for the relative frequency of gain.
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