Open 5C?

Just a quickie. Here's a hand which has done the rounds today. You hold, at green (non-vulnerable vs vulnerable):

K 2 -- J 2 A K J 10 6 5 4 3 2

Yep, that's nine clubs. Do you open it 1 or 5?

I'm not going to type away at length about what I think is best, but you might be interested in the probabilities of what can and can't make on the deal. Use them as you see fit.

• 5 will make about 54% of the time, 6 26% and 7 7.4%.
• 3NT will make by your hand 31% of the time.
• In 5.3% of cases, 3NT will make while 5 will fail. Yes, it might be impractical to get to 3NT in these situations, but impractical is better than impossible.
• Oppo can make 5 17% of the time, 5 7.1% of the time and 5 5.6% of the time. Why the diamond/spade discrepancy? I actually made LHO the declarer in all cases for convenience. With partner on lead, I'm happy to ruff a heart with a diamond but ruffing a heart with a spade may lead to a dropped trump trick.
• On the hands where you can make 5, oppo have a profitable sacrifice (going one off at worst) in 5 12% of the time, in 5 3.1% and in 5 2.2%. If you count going for -500 as neutral then these go up to 22%, 9.1% and 6.2%. Of course, on some of these deals we can make slam.
• Oppo have a profitable sacrifice in any suit on 14% of deals (there is plenty of overlap, so this isn't the sum of the above values).
• Oppo have an average of 7.4 spades, 7.4 diamonds and 8.6 hearts between them.

All figures are based on a 1000-deal simulation. I'll run it with more deals overnight and let you know if anything changes remarkably.